WDPN32 PGTW 040300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 040000Z4 TO 070000Z7 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM EAST OF KADENA,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 032330Z1 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A 
LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN 50 KNOT GALES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 
MAINTAINED ITS CORE CONVECTION AROUND A LARGE 50 NM EYE FEATURE.
   B. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS TY
22W TRACKS WESTWARD THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST, WHILE A
MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER BUILDS OVER EASTERN CHINA. BY MID-
PERIOD, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA.  THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL 
MODELS INCLUDING NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NOGAPS, 
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. GFDN AND JTYM ARE 
SHOWING A POLEWARD BIAS IN THE MID TO LATE PERIOD DUE TO ENHANCED 
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE OTHER REGIONAL MODELS ARE EXHIBITING A 
SLOW BIAS, THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS.
   C. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND IT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 22W IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN. 
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, 
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS. FORECAST WIND 
FORECAST RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/KENDALL/DANIEL/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/EDBERG/ 
COOK//

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