WDPN32 PGTW 020300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 011200Z4 TO 041200Z7 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM EAST OF KADENA, 
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. A 012107Z0 SSM/I PASS 
INDICATED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS.
   B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN IS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE 
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CHINA. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AROUND THIS RIDGE FEATURE. THE 
STRENGTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STEER TY 22W ON A 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS (AVN, 
NOGAPS, COAMPS, AFWA MM5, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL, AND THE JMA GLOBAL AND 
TYPHOON MODELS) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE REGIONAL MODELS, COAMPS, 
GFDN, AND AFWA MM5, PRODUCE TRACK SOLUTIONS POLEWARD OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS AND FAVORS THE POLEWARD SOLUTIONS IN THE LATE PERIOD.  
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IT TRACKS OVER COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY THE PASSAGE OF PREVIOUS TROPICAL 
STORMS. A SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES 
VENTILATED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN THE LATE PERIOD.
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND SSMI PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY 
FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.   
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PIVIN/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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