WDPN32 PGTW 311500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 311200Z7 AUG 02 TO 031200Z6 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST OF IWO 
JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS.  
   B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND 
CONTINUE TO DRIVE TY 22 WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS (AVN, NOGAPS, COAMPS, THE AFWA 
MESOSCALE (MM5), AND THE JMA GLOBAL AND TYPHOON MODELS) ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS.  
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY THE PASSAGE OF PREVIOUS TROPICAL STORMS.  
   D. INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.   
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/MORRIS/BOSTIC/DUKES//

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