WDPN32 PGTW 310300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 310000Z4 AUG 02 TO 030000Z3 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST OF IWO 
JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 VISIBLE AND 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND 
EXPANDING COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
   B. THE BUILDING RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN IS INFLUENCING A MORE 
WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME. THIS RIDGE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO 
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL 
MODELS (AVN, NOGAPS, COAMPS, THE AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5), AND THE JMA 
GLOBAL AND TYPHOON MODELS) WERE USED AS THE BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST. 
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD 
IN AN ENVIRONMENT DEGRADED BY COOLER SST AND SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW. 
   D. THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST 
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.   
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PIVIN/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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