WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W WARNING NR 
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 290000Z1 AUG 02 TO 010000Z1 SEP 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
282330Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 282219Z4 AND A 282310Z6 
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEAL A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
PRIMARILY ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
   B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD IN WEAK STEERING FLOW WITH TROPICAL WESTERLIES TO THE 
SOUTH AND TROPICAL EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH IN THE EARLY PERIOD. BY 
48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD, TD 22W WILL BEGIN TRACKING MORE 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND 
PERSISTENCE.
   C. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT OR JUST BELOW A 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TD 22W 
WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. 
   D. SYSTEM DOES NOT CURRENTLY MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. FORECAST 
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.   
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/HEATH/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//

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