WDPN32 PGTW 191500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// 
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PHANFONE) WARNING/
NR 35// 
RMKS/ 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 191200Z3 AUG TO 201200Z5 AUG 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
191130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. A 
191115Z8 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND NO CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BAROCLINIC LEAF INDICATIVE OF FRONTOGENESIS.
   B. TY 19W REMAINS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND CONTINUES TO BE 
INFLUENCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO 
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 19W HAS 
BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS TRANSITIONING INTO 
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE 
TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF 
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), NOGAPS (NGPS), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, 
COAMPS, GFDN, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS 
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES.  
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECASTED WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZED SYSTEM. WIND RADII ARE NOT GIVEN FOR 
EXTRATROPICAL POSITIONS. 
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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