WDPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// 
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (PHANFONE) WARNING/
NR 21// 
RMKS/ 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z7 AUG TO 190000Z0 AUG 02.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
37 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 VISIBLE 
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 24 NM EYE WITH A PARTIALLY, 
DETERIORATING EYEWALL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. 
   B. THE MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF STY 19W IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PERIOD. STY 
19W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE 
OF THAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PERIOD. AFTER THE 36-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT 
TO THE EAST, CREATING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, NOGAPS (NGPS), UKMET 
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA, COAMPS, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND 
TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
   C. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE, 
THEREFORE, STY 19W IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. AFTER THE 48-HOUR 
POINT, STY 19W BEGINS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK DECREASING IN INTENSITY 
DUE TO ENCOUNTER WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/TON//

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