WDPN32 PGTW 140300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// 
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PHANFONE) WARNING NR 13// 
RMKS/ 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 140000Z5 AUG TO 17000Z8 AUG 02. 
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PHANFONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM 
NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. A 132333Z5 SSM/I PASS SHOWS 
AN IMPROVING BANDING EYE FEATURE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. THE MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF TY 19W IS 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 19W 
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A POLEWARD TRACK AS IT TRACKS BEHIND THE 
RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP AVIATION (AVN), 
GFDN, NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA, COAMPS, AND THE JAPANESE 
GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND ALL AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS.  
   C. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND FILL. THIS FILLING LOW AND A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE 
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEAR 
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
PROVIDE CROSS-EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 231946Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN LARGE SIZE 
SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/MORRIS/DUKES/BOSTIC//

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