WDPN32 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 120000Z3 AUG TO 150000Z6 AUG 02. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. A WELL-DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE WAS EVIDENT ON A RECENT TRMM PASS, THEREFORE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ARE 35 KNOTS. A RECENT PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT TS 19W REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. B. TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA, COAMPS, AND THE JAPANESE TYPHOON MODEL. ALL AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO THIS AND FAVORABLE CROSS-EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKER THAN CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT TRMM PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/DANIEL/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/TON// BT #0001 NNNN