WDPN32 PGTW 110300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC 
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 
01// 
RMKS/ 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 AUG TO 140000Z5 AUG 02. 
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
102330Z9 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102130Z7 SPECIAL 
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE SSMI PASS REVEALED LOW LEVEL BANDING AND A 
WELL ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL VORTEX. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT 
TD 19W IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT 
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 
NORTH IS HAMPERING FURTHER POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
   B. TD 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT 
CENTER TO THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF 
NOGAPS, UKMET AND AVIATION AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS 
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, CLIMATOLOGY, AND THE AVAILABLE 
AIDS. 
   C. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IMPEDING OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH. AS TD 19W TRACKS WESTWARD, THIS 
TROUGH SHOULD FILL AND MOVE WESTWARD, RESULTING IN IMPROVED OUTFLOW. 
THEREFORE, TD 19W SHOULD REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/DANIEL/RONSSE/TON/SCHAEFER//
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