WDPN31 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 050000Z5 TO 061200Z9 AUG 02. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (KAMMURI), MADE LANDFALL AT (APPROX) 042200Z8 JUST EAST OF SHANWEI, CHINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. TS 16W HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. B. A MID-LATITUDE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE YELLOW SEA AND WEAKEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA, CAUSING TS 16W TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AWFA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON MODELS (JTYM), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK BUT VARY IN SPEED. ALL THE MODELS AGREE WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE AIDS DO NOT AGREE WITH THE RATE OF DISSIPATION. EGRR, NOGAPS, AND GFDN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AFTER LANDFALL, WHILE THE OTHER AIDS MERGE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE LOW, TRACKING TS 16W BEYOND 36 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE TS 16W TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. INITIAL WIND RADII IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND A 042201Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS. 3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY/NUTONGLA// NNNN