WDPN34 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (KALMAEGI) 15W 
WARNING 
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 240000Z6 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (KALMAEGI) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 
NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 
AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD 15W HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. 
   B. TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS 
ALONG THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE UK 
MET OFFICE (EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS. 
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NOGAPS, GEOPHYSICAL FLUID 
DYNAMICS-NAVY (GFDN) AND NCEP AVN ARE UNABLE TO TRACK THE VORTEX 
AFTER 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, SIMILAR MID-LEVEL STEERING IS EVIDENT IN 
ALL MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE.
   C. TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IT 
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT 
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TUTT.  BY 48 HOURS THE TUTT CELL 
SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LESS FAVORABLE, 
HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
   D. THE WIND RADII FORECAST IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL TO 
MEDIUM STORM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/LEEJOICE/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN/BOSTIC//

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