** WTPN34 PGTW 202100 COR *** REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200051Z JUL 02// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 001 CORRECTED 04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z1 --- NEAR 17.2N0 178.3E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N0 178.3E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 18.3N2 176.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 19.3N3 174.5E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 20.4N6 172.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 21.4N7 170.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 23.5N0 167.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.5N3 177.8E3. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (KALMAEGI) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD 15W HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 200051Z JUL 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 200100) NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z6, 210900Z2, 211500Z9 AND 212100Z6. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 12W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED POINT OF REFERENCE FROM IWO JIMA TO WAKE ISLAND IN THE REMARKS SECTION.//