WDPN33 PGTW 270300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FUNG-
WONG) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 TO 281200Z3 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED 
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED 
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS JAPAN AS IT DISSIPATES. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE UKMET OFFICE EGRR, NOGAPS, 
AVN, AFWA MM5, AND THE JMA GLOBAL MODEL. ALL THE AIDS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT IN TRACK, BUT VARY IN SPEED OF DISSIPATION. OUR FORECAST 
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
   C. TD 14W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR 
FROM UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
   D. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA.  
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/HEATH/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//



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