WDPN33 PGTW 251500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FUNG-WONG)/ 
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 251200Z0 TO 270000Z9 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY-EXPOSED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. THE ONE-WAY INFLUENCE BY TS 12W AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST 
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE TS 14W'S TRACK THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. AS TS 14W COMPLETES THE CYCLONIC LOOP, IT WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE AIDS, 
CONSISTING OF THE UKMET OFFICE EGRR, NOGAPS, AVN, COAMPS, AFWA MM5, 
GFDN, JMA GLOBAL AND TYPHOON MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT 
DIFFER IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM.  EGRR, AVN, AND THE TYPHOON 
MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS, WHILE THE OTHER AIDS 
INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM STRONGER AND WEAKEN IT MORE SLOWLY THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. A 251223Z5 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IN 
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND NO RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW 
LEVEL. BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE PREVIOUS 12 HOUR SATELLITE 
ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE DATA, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 
36 HOURS.
   C. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR 
FROM UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES.
   D. INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A 
SMALL SIZE SYSTEM.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: CORRECTED PARA 2.B. TO STATE TS 12W.
4. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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