WDPN33 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FUNG-WONG) 
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 250000Z7 TO 270000Z9 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z2 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. A 242345Z0 SSM/I 
PASS SHOWS INDICATIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE.  
   B. ONE-WAY INFLUENCE BY TY 12W AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST 
MONSOONAL FLOW SHOULD MANIPULATE A CYCLONIC NORTHEASTWARD TO 
NORTHERN MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE AVAILIABLE AIDS 
CONSISTING OF THE UKMET OFFICE EGRR, NOGAPS, AVN, COAMPS, AFWA MM5,  
GFDN, JMA GLOBAL AND TYPHOON MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT 
DIFFER IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM. EGRR, AVN, AND THE TYPHOON 
MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS, WHILE THE OTHER AIDS 
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM LONGER DUE TO STRONGER INTENSITIES. DUE TO THE 
RECENT IMPROVEMENT OF TY 12W, DISSIPIATION IS STILL FORECASTED BY 48 
HOURS, HOWEVER, CLOSE ANALYSIS OF TS 14W IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL 
DETERMINE IF IT MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND SUCCESSFULLY RECURVES TO THE 
NORTHWEST. 
   C. TY 12W'S OUTFLOW OF MOISTURE IN THE MIDLEVELS HAS HELPED TS 
14W MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. A SOUTHWEST MONSOON SURGE MAY ALSO HELP  
MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OVER THE  NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TS 
14W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLIES.
   D. INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A 
SMALL SIZE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/MORRIS/CUTMAN/TON/
BT
#5849
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