WDPN33 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 15// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z6 TO 260000Z8 JUL 02. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS, MICROWAVE AND SYNOPTIC DATA. A 232357Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. B. TS 14W HAS BEGUN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN. THIS RIDGE HOWEVER, IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER EARLY PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF TY 12W FROM THE NORTHEAST. AS TY 12W APPROACHES TS 14W, IT WILL INFLUENCE A TURN TO THE SOUTH IN TS 14W. AFTERWARDS, THE PROXIMITY OF THE WIND FIELD OF TY 12W WILL BEGIN A CAPTURE OF TS 14W, BRINGING THE TRACK AROUND TO THE EAST AGAIN AND THEN MERGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE LARGER STORM, TY 12W. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NCEP AVIATION (AVN), NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), JAPAN GLOBAL (JGSM) AND JAPAN TYPHOON (JTYM) ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE ONLY DISAGREEMENT IS BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. GFDN, THE AFWA MESOSCALE, COAMPS, AND THE NOGAPS TRACKERS ERRONEOUSLY CONTINUE ON THROUGH 72 TAU (A HUGE JUMP TO THE NORTH) FOLLOWING THE TY 12W VORTEX. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A DISSIPATION TREND AFTER CAPTURE WITHIN TY 12'S WIND FIELD. C. TS 14W HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ENTERING THE WIND FIELD OF TY 12W, IT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS TY 12W CAPTURES THE SYSTEM BEGINNING IN 12 TO 18 HOURS. D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA// NNNN