WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W WARNING 
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 211200Z6 TO 241200Z9 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
211130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 
KNOTS. A 211103Z8 TRMM PASS DEPICTS A SMALL BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION 
ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
   B. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG 
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE 
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE 
END OF THE PERIOD AS STY 12W (FENGSHEN) APPROACHES AND BEGINS 
TO INTERACT WITH TS 14W. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF 
NCEP AVN, NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, AFWA MM5, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND 
THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN POOR 
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE INTERACTION WITH SUPER 
TYPHOON 12W (FENGSHEN), BUT VARY IN SPEED AND TIMING OF RECURVATURE 
TO THE SOUTH. NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER 
AIDS, RECURVING THE SYSTEM WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS 
UNLIKELY BASED ON THE SEPARATION DISTANCE OF THE TWO SYSTEMS. OUR 
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS, 
WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS AND GFDN.
   C. TS 14W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND 
THEN WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH 
STY 12W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE SYSTEM, CREATING AN 
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  
   D. INITAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A 
SMALL SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
NNNN