WDPN31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 201200Z5 TO 231200Z8 JUL 02. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. B. TD 14 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS STY 12W (FENGSHEN) APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TD 14W. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NCEP AVN, NOGAPS, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) MODELS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. NOGAPS AND AVN INDICATE INTERACTION BY 24 HOURS, MERGING TD 14W WITH STY 12W BY 48 HOURS. JGSM TRACKS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. C. TD 14W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ENHANCES OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH STY 12W. D. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN// NNNN