WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING 
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 230000Z5 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, JUST WEST OF SAMAR ISLAND IN THE 
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS IN THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. 
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH NEW DEEP CONVECTION. 
   B. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST MONSOON THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, 
GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN POOR  
AGREEMENT. THE AVN AND GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF LUZON AND THEN OUT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EGRR DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WHILE 
NGPS BRINGS THE SYSTEM INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE NGPS SOLUTION 
SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR THE MARIANAS. THE EGRR SOLUTION OF DISSIPATION 
SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED 
ON PERSISTENCE AND THE AVN MODEL.
   C. TD 13W IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EARLY 
PERIOD WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND TO WEAKEN WHILE 
TRACKING OVER LUZON. IN THE LATE PERIOD, TD 13W IS FORECAST TO ENTER 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WEST OF LUZON AND THEN BEGIN TO RECONSOLIDATE.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/AYALA/BOSTIC//

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