WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FENGSHEN) WARNING/ 
NR 40//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z6 TO 270000Z9 JUL 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 232330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 
KNOTS. 
   B. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL JAPAN IS STRENGTHENING AND 
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF OF THE COAST BY MID PERIOD. ALL AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION 
(AVN), NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE JAPAN GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON MODELS 
(JTYM) REFLECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THE RIDGE LATE TO CONTINUE THE 
SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A 
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 12W HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT 
THE UPPER EASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER 
TY 12W, MAINTAINING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUING THE 
WEAKENING TREND.  
   D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST WIND 
RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//

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