WDPN31 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 12W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 28// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 240000Z6 JUL 02. A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 12W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING A ROUND 16 NM WIDE EYE. B. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LINK UP WITH STY 12W'S PERIPHERAL RIDGE. STY 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, NOGAPS (NGPS), AFWA MM5, COAMPS, UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT VARY IN SPEED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. STY 12W HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN/BOSTIC// NNNN