WDPN31 PGTW 2703000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W 
(FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 52//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 TO 281200Z4 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
215 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. A 262250Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR 
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND THAT THERE IS ALMOST NO DEEP 
CONVECTION.
   B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS IT DISSIPATES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSIST OF THE NCEP AVN, UKMET EGRR, NOGAPS, GFDN AND JMA GLOBAL 
MODELS. AVN MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM STRONGER, STEERING IT ALONG THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, MINIMIZING 
AVN. 
   C. TD 12W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM IN AN UNFAVORABLE 
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
FORECAST FOR DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
   D. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/HEATH/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//

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