WDPN31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 12W (FENGSHEN) WARNING NR 24// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 230000Z5 JUL 02. A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 12W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STY 12W HAS A 15NM WIDE EYE. B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF STY 12W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STY 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, STY 12W SHOULD PROPAGATE TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOP A PERIPHERY RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, NOGAPS (NGPS), AFWA MM5, COAMPS, UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH A CONSIDERATION FOR PERSISTENCE IN THE EARLY PERIOD. C. STY 12W IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE REACHED MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/AYALA/HARRISON/CUTMAN/BOSTIC// NNNN