WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 12W (FENGSHEN) 
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 191200Z3 TO 221200Z7 JUL 02.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 12W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 
NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. A 191028Z1 
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS A 15 NM RAGGED 
EYE AND A CONTINUING INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN 
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
   B. STY 12W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH RE-ORIENTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A PERIPHERAL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE TRACK. STY 12W IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THIS RIDGE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, NOGAPS (NGPS), 
AFWA MM5, COAMPS, UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE JAPANESE 
GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE GENERAL STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OUR 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH A 
CONSIDERATION FOR PERSISTENCE IN THE EARLY PERIOD.
   C. STY 12W IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT IS 
APPROACHING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND 
WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.    
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIND RADII 
FORECASTED ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//



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