WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FENGSHEN) WARNING 
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z8 TO 200000Z2 JUL 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.  
   B. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF TY 12W IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE 
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, 
TY 12W WILL TRACK UNDER THE RIDGE AND WILL INCREASE ITS WESTWARD 
SPEED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NCEP AVIATION (AVN), 
GFDN, NOGAPS, AFWA MM5, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON 
(JTYM) MODELS. ALL AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT VARY 
IN SPEED. OUR FORECAST IS A BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE 
TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  
HOWEVER, AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM ENJOYS GOOD OUTFLOW WHILE LOCATED 
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.     
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 161824Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS. WIND 
RADII FORECASTED ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A MIDGET SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/AYALA/BOSTIC//

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