WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FENGSHEN) WARNING 
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z7 TO 190000Z0 JUL 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS 11 NM EYE. A 152222Z4 SSM/I PASS 
SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CENTERED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER WITH CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE EQUATORWARD SIDE.  
   B. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF 
TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 12W IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY 
THIS RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NCEP AVIATION 
(AVN), NOGAPS, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE NGPS 
AND AVIATION MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE OTHER AIDS, 
REFLECTING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE. OUR FORECAST IS A BASED ON A 
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND 
PROPAGATE WESTWARD TOWARDS TY 12W AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD HELP 
ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW AND STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY.  
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A MIDGET 
SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/AYALA/HARRISON/CUTMAN/BOSTIC//

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