WDPN33 PGTW 130300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 
19 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z4 TO 141200Z8 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE, ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA, AND RADAR FIXES. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 
35 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES TS 11W IS UNDERGOING 
EXTROPICAL TRANSITION AND SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 131200Z7.
   B. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS REMAINED STRONG 
EASTWARD OF TS 11W OVER THE LAST 12HOURS CAUSING TS 11W TO TRACK 
NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE TS 11W 
NORTHWARD OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET 
(EGRR), NOGAPS, AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWARD TRACK AND 
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS TS 11W UNDERGOES EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION. 
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL NUMERICAL MODELS. 
   C. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER  
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  
   D. SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/KENDALL/EDBERG/SCHAEFER
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: DELETED EXTRA CHARACTER IN PARA 
2.A.//



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