WDPN33 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 120000Z3 TO 140000Z5 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NAKRI), NOW APPROXIMATELY 55 NAUTICAL 
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED 
IN ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. A SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON SURGE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH TS 
11W OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK 
NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN 
EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH EASTWARD OF TS 11W, RESULTING IN A MORE 
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILIABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF 
THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, AFWA 
MM5, AND JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS. NOGAPS 
DOES NOT RESOLVE THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX VERY WELL, JUMPING TO ANOTHER 
LOW LEVEL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHICH RESULTS IN A FASTER TRACK 
THAN THE OTHER AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL 
NUMERICAL MODELS, WITH A SLOWER SPEED TO COMPENSATE FOR NOGAPS. 
   C. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS POLEWARD AND ENTERS 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII BASED ON A SYNOPTIC DATA AND AN 112036Z3 
QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN 
AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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