WDPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 TO 140000Z5 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NAKRI), NOW LOCATED OFF OF THE 
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
102330Z9 VISIBLE, ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC 
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
APPROXIMATERLY 10NM TO THE EAST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
   B. SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LEVEL  
RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM MINDANAO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN MARIANA 
ISLANDS, WILL INFLUENCE THE TROPICAL STORM MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. AFTERWARD, APPROACHING TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO ERODE A PORTION 
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS 
SCENARIO IS FORECAST TO CAUSE TS 11W TO SLOW AND THEN TRACK TO THE 
NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TWO CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED OFF 
OF THE 00Z RUN. GFDN AND NGPS DRIFTS THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD 
FOR 24-HRS. THEN REMAINS SOMEWHAT QUASISTATIONARY, WITH A SLIGHT 
DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. AVN, JGSM, AND UKMET GRID POINT 
INDICATE A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT THROUGH 24-HRS THEN A NORTHWARD 
TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL NUMERICAL MODELS. 
   C. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
DIFFLUENT UPPER SOUTHERLIES DOMINATE THE REGION. AFTERWARD, A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA 
INCREASING THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE, HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA//
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