WDPN33 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 09// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 101200Z4 TO 131200Z7 JUL 02. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NAKRI), NOW LOCATED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA (100951Z6 QUIKSCAT) INDICATING 35 KNOTS. LATEST ENHANCED I/R ANIMATION DEPICTS NEW BURSTS BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. B. SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM MINDANAO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS, SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TROPICAL STORM MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, APPROACHING TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO ERODE A PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS SCENARIO IS FORECAST TO CAUSE TS 11W TO SLOW TO A DRIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED OFF OF THE NWP 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. AVN AND THE JMA GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT EROSION BY TY 10W AND NOW INDICATE A DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 36 TAU. GFDN, NOGAPS, THE UKMET GRID POINT, AND THE AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5) INDICATE A TURN TO THE SOUTH OR TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE NOGAPS CLUSTER ACCURATELY DEPICTS THE SIZE OF TY 10W (AVN CLUSTER INDICATES A CONSIDERABLY SMALLER 10W SYSTEM), OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL NUMERICAL MODELS BUT WEIGHS HEAVILY ON THE MID-LEVEL MODIFICATION BY TY 10W. C. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DIFFLUENT UPPER SOUTHERLIES DOMINATE THE REGION. AFTERWARD, A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA INCREASING THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, HINDERING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA// NNNN