WDPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NAKRI) WARNING 
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 091200Z2 TO 121200Z6 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NAKRI), REMAINS OVER THE TAIWAN 
STRAIT AND HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 
KNOTS. TAIWAN RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A 06 HOUR WEAKENING TREND 
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. MODERATE TO STRONG RAIN BANDS 
ARE REVEALED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND PROPAGATING OVER THE 
NORTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN.
   B. MODERATE MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES IN RESPONSE TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER MINDANAO SHOULD INFLUENCE THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF NWP 
CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
GFDN, FOR EXAMPLE, LOSSES THE VORTEX BY 36 TAU. THE JMA GLOBAL, 
UKMET GRID POINT, COAMPS, NOGAPS, AND THE AVN RUN, HOWEVER, 
GENERALLY AGREE WITH A TRACK AROUND THE NORTHERN REGION OF TAIWAN. 
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS MODEL ENSEMBLE.
   C. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS 
THE SYSTEM HUGS THE TAIWAN COAST. AFTERWARD, FURTHER STRENGTHENING 
IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM TAIWAN AND BENEATH THE UPPER 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALLER 
THAN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//

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