WDPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NAKRI) WARNING 
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z9 TO 120000Z3 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (NAKRI), LOCATED OVER THE TAIWAN 
STRAIT, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION 
AND SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICT TS 11W AS A RELATIVELY SMALL (APPROX. 90 
NM), SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. A 082153Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE 
STRONGER WINDS WERE CONFINED TO THE STRAIT. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTH QUADRANT WERE 30 KNOTS OR LESS.
   B. MODERATE MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING 
SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER MINDANAO SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONES MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF NWP HAVE HAD 
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE JMA GLOBAL, UKMET 
GRID POINT, COAMPS, AND THE AVN RUN (THROUGH 48 TAU), HOWEVER, AGREE 
WITH A TRACK AROUND THE NORTHERN REGION OF TAIWAN. OUR FORECAST IS 
BASED ON THIS MODEL CLUSTER.
   C. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF TAIWAN. A TUTT OVER 
SOUTHEAST ASIA, HOWEVER, APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING THE 
OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARD, FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS 
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM TAIWAN AND BENEATH THE UPPER 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   D. THE FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/KENDALL/WARREN/EDBERG/SCHAEFER//