WDPN32 PGTW 081500 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WARNING 
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 081200Z7 TO 111200Z5 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 11W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 081135Z8 TRMM 
PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
CLEARLY DEFINED RAIN BANDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. 
   B. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. A NEGATIVELY 
TILTED MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL 
SUPPORT FOR THIS MOVEMENT. THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE PERIOD 
THE FORECASTED MOTION CONTINUES WITH THE MONSOON FLOW, HOWEVER, A 
BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA MAY SLOW TD 11W. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF COAMPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), NOGAPS, AND 
THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS 
SCENARIO EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT DIVERGE BY THE LATE PERIOD. OUR 
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF DYNAMIC AIDS, PERSISTENCE AND THE BETA 
ADVECTION MODELS.
   C. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A 
MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
   D. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/LEEJOICE/AYALA/HARRISON/BOSTIC//

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