WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (HALONG) WARNING NR 
35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z9 TO 171200Z1 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HAS BEGUN 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. A 151003Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING 
MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO 
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED.
   B. TS 10W IS NOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STEERING 
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES 
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND 
CONTINUES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSISTING OF THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN), NOGAPS (NGPS), UKMET (EGRR), 
GFDN, AND JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODEL. THE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO IN TERMS OF TRACK 
DIRECTION AND SPEED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS 
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. INTENSITY DECREASES WILL BECOME 
MORE RAPID AS TS 10W TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS, 
ENTRAINS COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH, AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//



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