WDPN32 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HALONG) WARNING NR 23// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 121200Z6 TO 151200Z8 JUL 02. A. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTHEAST OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TY 10W HAS AN ELONGATED, 32 NM WIDE EYE. B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS, TOWARDS A WEAKENESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST CHINA SEA. AFTERWARDS, AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND GUIDE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN), NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, COAMPS, AND JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OUTFLOW RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLIES IN THIS REGION WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS, DEVELOPEMENT SHOULD BE A ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTATED ALONG 27.0N. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING KOREA SHOULD ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FURTHER AIDING DEVELOPMENT. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 120904Z6 QUICKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/AYALA/HARRISON/BOSTIC/DUKES// NNNN