WDPN32 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HALONG) WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z1 TO 130000Z4 JUL 02. A. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR FIXES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A 091943Z6 QUIKSCAT PASS ANALYZED A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 10W HAS DEVELOPED A STRONG BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. B. THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN), COAMPS, NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT INTERACTION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF TAIWAN. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND MINIMIZES THE INTERACTION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. C. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST ENHANCES THE OUTFLOW POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. LATER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY IN MARGINAL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/KENDALL/EDBERG/SCHAEFER//