WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (HALONG) WARNING 
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 081200Z1 TO 111200Z5 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. A 081129Z1 
SSM/I PASS SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE EQUATORWARD 
SEMICIRCLE AND IS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.   
   B. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
THE SYSTEM. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 
THIS RIDGE AND TURN MORE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE 
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF 
THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN), COAMPS, NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, AND THE 
JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, ARE GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, JTYM AND JGSM CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE 
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A 
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE AVIATION 
AND COAMPS. 
   C. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/AYALA/BOSTIC//

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