MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z0 TO 101200Z4 JUL 02. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. A 070753Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. B. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT OF TY 08W RECURVING NORTHWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN), NOGAPS, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER IN DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT. JTYM AND JGSM FAVOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH EMPHASIS ON PERSISTENCE AND THE AVN AND GFDN MODEL RUNS. C. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 48 HOURS WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND THEN INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. D. FORECAST WIND RADII BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/AYALA/HARRISON/BOSTIC// NNNN