WDPN32 PGTW 300300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// 
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING 
NR 08// 
RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 300000Z3 JUN TO 030000Z3 JUL 02. 
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 
NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. A RECENT 
QUICKSCAT PASS AND ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LLCC 
IS EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TS 09W SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING 
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF 
NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND THE JAPANESE 
GLOBAL (JGSM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST 
SCENARIO. TRACK SPEEDS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE SLOWER IN THE EARLY 
PERIOD THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLY PERIOD 
INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.
   C. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT 
REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/RONSSE/SHERRY// 

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