WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// 
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSSION 09W WARNING NR 
04// 
RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 290000Z1 JUN TO 020000Z2 JUL 02. 
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
282330Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS 
DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE. 
   B. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, NCEP 
AVIATION (AVN) AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND REGIONAL (JTYM) 
MODELS. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND 
THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS. 
   C. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN INTENSIFY AT A 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. 
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/RONSSE/SHERRY// 

NNNN