WDPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSSION 09W WARNING NR 
02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z3 JUN TO 011200Z4 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 
THE OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE 
PHILIPPINE SEA. 281218Z2 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION 
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, AVIATION 
(AVN), AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) MODELS. JGSM, COAMPS, AND 
NOGAPS DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATE IN THE 
PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. 
AVN AND GFDN INTERACT WITH A WEAKNESS NEAR THE PHILIPPINES, CAUSING 
THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND 
OF ALL AVALIABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN INTENSIFY AT A 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/PIVIN/LAM/KUMAGA//
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