WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (CHATAAN) WARNING 
NR 53//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 TO 120000Z3 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (CHATAAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 37 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 
KNOTS. A 102332Z1 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTION 
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTIC OF AN 
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM.
   B. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AVN, NOGAPS, COAMPS, THE 
UK-MET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK AND SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
AND PERSISTENCE. 
   C. TS 08W HAS COMPLETED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
   D.THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/PIVIN/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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