WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (CHATAAN) WARNING 
NR 41//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 080000Z3 TO 110000Z2 JUL 02.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (ST) 08W (CHATAAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 
KNOTS. A 071908Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS 
INDICATED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLIGHTLY OBLONG  
EYE FEATURE.   
   B. ST 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND 
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF MAINLAND CHINA IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 
HOURS, RE-ORIENTING THE STEERING RIDGE IN A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH 
DIRECTION. ST 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD THROUGH 
36 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING AS INCREASING WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD OF THE 
STORM MOTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF AVN, NOGAPS, 
COAMPS, THE UK-MET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5), AND THE 
JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT. THE AFWA AND JTYM MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK INTO 
RECURVATURE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC 
AIDS.
   C. ST 08W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP. AFTERWARDS, ST 08W IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MID-LAT FEATURES.
   D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS BASED ON A 072037Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PIVIN/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
NNNN