WDPN31 PGTW 290300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSSION 08W WARNING NR 
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 290000Z1 JUN TO 020000Z2 JUL 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTEASTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
TOWARDS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
   B. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH 
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. AFTERWARDS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 
OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE AVIATION, 
NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND JAPANESE GLOBAL 
(JGSM) MODELS. ALL OF THE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
INITIAL SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS, AND THEN 
NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT, WITH JGSM KEEPING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVALIABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT EXPERIENCES MODERATE 
OUTFLOW TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY 
PERIOD AND THEN TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM.
   E. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) TO 
TROPICAL STORM (TS) IN PARA A, B, AND C.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/JACOBS/RONSSE/CUTMAN//



NNNN