WDPN31 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSSION 08W WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z3 JUN TO 011200Z4 JUL 02. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADARANT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 281248Z5 TRMM PASS SUGGESTS TWO POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS MAY EXIST. B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AFTERWARDS, TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE AVIATION, NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND JAPANESE GLOBAL MODELS. ALL OF THE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS, AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVALIABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TD 08W IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, INHIBITING VENTILATION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/PIVIN/LAM/KUMAGA// NNNN