WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NOGURI) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z1 TO 120000Z3 JUN 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (NOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
100003Z4 RADAR IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED FROM THE 
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE OKINAWA RADAR LOOP 
INDICATED THAT TY 07W TRACKED JUST EASTWARD OF THE ISLAND OF MIYAKO 
AT 091700Z7 (APPROX) AND THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED CONCENTRATED 
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 092151Z8 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP 
CONVECTION LOCALIZED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
   B. TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF 
THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC 
ZONE. THE JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM), NOGAPS, AND GFDN 
MODELS MERGE TY 07W WITH THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE YELLOW SEA. 
THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION. NOGAPS IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE, MERGING THE SYSTEM SOONER THAN GFDN AND JGSM. THIS 
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO BE AGGRESSIVE AND RESULT IN 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 48 HOURS. THE JAPANESE TYPHOON MODEL 
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO JGSM. THE NCEP-AVN AND UKMET MODELS WEAKEN THE 
SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS. BASED ON LACK OF MODEL TRACKERS, OUR FORECAST IS 
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FOUR MODELS.
   C. TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST 
AND INTO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY, QUIKSCAT, 
AND SYNOPTIC DATA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
A SMALL-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/PIVIN/MORRIS/KUMAGA//
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