WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NOGURI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 091200Z2 TO 121200Z6 JUN 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (NOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING 
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z6 ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TY 07W REMAINS A 
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH REDUCED DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. A 
090921Z1 SSM/I PASS INDICATED A PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH COMPARATIVELY 
LITTLE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. 
   B. TY 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE EAST 
CHINA SEA IN 24 HOURS (APPROX) AND INFLUENCE A MORE NORTHEASTWARD 
STEERING MOTION. WITH THE PASSING TROUGH, BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS 
EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN ACCELERATION AND FURTHER INFLUENCE THE 
DIRECTION. ALL AVAILABLE AIDS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT RESULT IN 
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TY 07W. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS FAIL TO 
RESOLVE TY 07W IN THE DEVELOPING MID-LAT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
PASSING TROUGH. REGIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS VARY IN THE DEGREE OF 
MID-LAT INTERACTION WITH GFDN AND AFWA MM5 MAKING THE MOST POLEWARD 
SOLUTIONS. THIS BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO BE AGRESSIVE 
AND RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. DUE THE LACK OF DISTINCT TRACKERS FOR SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FIVE MODELS.
   C. TY 07W MAY HAVE REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY ALTHOUGH THE 
APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH MAY CREATE A SHORT-LIVED INTENSIFICATION 
PERIOD. ULTIMATELY, THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER 
SST WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC 
DATA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/AYALA/HARRISON/BOSTIC//

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