WDPN31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NOGURI) WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z9 TO 120000Z3 JUN 02. A. TYPHOON (TY) 07W (NOGURI), LOCATED 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST TEN HOURS. A 082205Z7 SSM/I IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH WELL DEFINED EYE AND A BROAD REGION OF DRY AIR WEST OF THE SYSTEM. B. TY 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA BY 36 HOURS. A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ALL AVAILABLE AIDS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THEN BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF EIGHT MODELS. C. TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLIES. D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/PIVIN/LAM/KUMAGA// NNNN