WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z0 TO 101200Z4 JUN 02.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM 
SOUTH OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 071201Z1 SPECIAL 
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS AND 071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SSMI AND RECENT TROPICAL 
RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM) PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LLCC 
CONTINUES TO BE BROAD, BUT HAS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 
12 HOURS.
   B. TD 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AT THAT 
POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE GROUPED IN TWO CLUSTERS. THE 
FIRST CLUSTER (GFDN AND AVN) TRACKS THE SYSTEM EAST, THEN NORTHWARD 
AS THE STORM INTERACTS WITH A TRANSIENT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE 
SECOND CLUSTER (EGRR AND NGPS) TRACKS TD 07W NORTHWARD AS A WEAK 
SYSTEM. WHILE THE SECOND CLUSTER INITIALIZED WELL WITH LARGE SCALE 
FEATURES, THE FIRST CLUSTERS' PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE VERIFIED. DUE 
TO POSSIBLE COMPENSATING ERROR MECHANISMS, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. 
   C. EVEN THOUGH TD 07W HAS SHOWN INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN THE 
SHORT TERM, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER ITS LLCC. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITIES DO NOT MEET WIND RADII 
CRITERIA. 
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/WARREN/NUTONGLA//



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